Australia's leading independent economic forecaster

Widespread lockdowns and social distancing in economies affected by the coronavirus outbreak are set to cause a massive negative short-term impact on consumer spending and GDP.

The COVID-19 pandemic will badly hit all EM economies. Limitations in health care, fiscal buffers, and economic structure typically make EMs more vulnerable to major external shocks. Our scorecard ran...

Our new forecasts show the global economy entering recession in the first half of 2020, with the downturn expected to be comparable to that seen in the Global Financial Crisis.

Using a ‘fair-value’ model, we calculate that sovereign debt spreads have risen too little relative to vulnerabilities in South Africa, Turkey, and Pakistan, and too much in Ukraine and Mexico.

In our global macro chartbook for March, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. We have slashed our global GDP grow...

In recent weeks we have revised down our baseline forecasts as more countries announced draconian policy measures to limit the spread of coronavirus. Our latest forecasts now show the global economy a...

​We have slashed our 2020 growth forecast for China given the deepening impact of the coronavirus. We now expect GDP to plunge 5% y/y in Q1, given the awful data for January-February and the fact th...

As massive capital outflows ravage emerging markets (EMs), we’re seeing significant differences in how it’s affecting currencies. LatAm currencies were already getting hit amid deepening policy uncert...

The US economy is in a recession. The coronavirus pandemic will lead to profound, pervasive, and persistent, but not permanent reductions in activity, with widespread cuts in social spending, severe d...

In recent weeks, attention has understandably focused on limiting the damage from the short-term effects of the coronavirus outbreak. But it’s likely that, once disruption and uncertainty fade, the re...