Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

Despite increasing numbers of new coronavirus cases globally, the possibility that more economies will enjoy both limited domestic restrictions and sustained low new case numbers is growing closer tha...

Over the past year, it’s become easier to envisage a path to sustained higher inflation than it’s ever been in the past decade in advanced economies. However, this outcome is far from inevitable – we...

An array of metrics points to improved global prospects, based on our latest review of alternative gauges of economic risk. All suggest stronger – in some cases, much stronger – 2021 growth than they...

A run of encouraging business surveys and the apparent successful reopening of the Israeli economy suggest that upside risks to our already above-consensus outlook may be rising.

Market nervousness about inflation has increased in recent weeks, in part due to strong monetary growth in the major economies. While we still think that the monetary boom is not a cause for anxiety,...

Suspension of AstraZeneca vaccinations in a number of European economies, news of more vaccine supply problems, and rising Covid case numbers globally are all indications that the transition to normal...

Following the terrible disappointment of the last decade (Figure 1), the era of lows – low GDP growth, inflation, real interest rates, asset returns, and macro-volatility – will continue through this...

Businesses have become more positive about growth prospects and much less concerned over the possibility of severe downside shocks, based on our March flash survey of global risk perceptions. Only one...

Aside from the speed at which restrictions on activity will be eased in the next few months and the permanence of the rollback, the next greatest uncertainty is how household spending will respond in...

Global bond yields have risen sharply over recent weeks to become more in line with fair value. Previous episodes have demonstrated that what starts as a benign correction could evolve into a tantrum...