Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

We have become more optimistic that the long-term damage to the world economy from the coronavirus crisis will be less than we originally anticipated, especially because of the rapid rebound of output...

The recent broad-based rises in core inflation across a range of advanced economies has reopened the debate as to whether this year’s rise in inflation really is a purely transitory phenomenon.

The global economy appears to be moving past supply shortages with little lasting impact. But the bigger story is that increasing signs of consumer and business caution might indicate that global grow...

The recent improvement in business sentiment has stalled amid supply-chain disruption and the spread of the Delta variant, according to the September flash survey of risk perceptions.

Four key themes are set to dominate markets in the coming months: a volatile recovery path; a reversion to “secular stagnation-light”; abundant liquidity that is supporting asset valuations; and risin...

In 2022, we expect the strength of global economic growth to be driven by demand-side developments, in stark contrast to the past two years when shifts in activity restrictions have been the dominant...

Delta remains the primary threat to the recovery, but we also think that the drag from continuing supply-chain disruption will be critical in the near term. Consequently, we’ve pushed back our expecte...

Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper on gilt interest rates. Our analysis shows that the private net wealth-to-GDP...

We highlight which economies face the most intense medium-term fiscal adjustment predicaments. For each economy, the predicament varies according to various measures of the fiscal outlook and fiscal r...

Concerns have risen about financial market risks, centring around elevated asset valuations and high corporate debt. A lack of corporate distress and low interest rates suggest no cause for panic. But...