Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

We estimate overall long-term economic scarring will be slightly higher in emerging markets (EMs) than in advanced economies (AEs). Although AEs are underperforming EMs in the most important predictor...

We expect core government bond yields to trend upwards over the next five years, but based on our modelling work, a big surge in yields looks unlikely. Even our most downbeat scenario implies only mod...

News that another Covid vaccine has proven successful in trials has raised the chances of a more rapid lifting of activity restrictions in some advanced economies, and potentially better economic perf...

After collapsing in the first wave of the pandemic and consequent lock-downs, global CAPEX has begun to recover. But even though 2021 is bound to see the recovery continue we think the short-term outl...

Global bank credit standards continued to tighten in Q3 and early Q4, despite a rebound in world GDP in Q3. Although the pace of tightening in the US is moderating and the picture in most emerging mar...

After healthy rises on initial positive vaccine news from Pfizer BioNTech, global equity markets failed to push higher last week. Despite the encouraging medical news flow, logistical challenges remai...

We expect the long-term hit to GDP from the Covid-19 pandemic for emerging markets (-3.8%) to be more than double that of developed markets (-1.5%) despite both incurring a similar sized hit in 2020....

The sharp rebound in advanced economy (AE) employment over recent months has helped support the substantial initial pickup in consumer spending. But while surveys suggest that the jobs revival will co...

The recent encouraging Covid-19 vaccine developments bode well for a significant easing of restrictions on activity in 2021, while diminishing downside risks relating to delayed medical advances to co...

In our global macro chartbook for November, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. With many economies imposing tig...